Message-ID: <28818342.1075858675030.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Sun, 19 Aug 2001 18:28:48 -0700 (PDT)
From: gfergus@brobeck.com
To: b..sanders@enron.com, e-mail <.jeffrey@enron.com>, e-mail <.susan@enron.com>
Subject: FOR YOUR EYES ONLY-DO NOT DISTRIBUTE
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X-From: "Fergus, Gary S." <GFergus@brobeck.com>@ENRON <IMCEANOTES-+22Fergus+2C+20Gary+20S+2E+22+20+3CGFergus+40brobeck+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com>
X-To: Sanders, Richard B. </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=RSANDER>, Jeffrey D. (Dan) Watkiss (E-mail) <dwatkiss@bracepatt.com>, Susan Bishop (E-mail) <sbishop@gibbs-bruns.com>
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ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE
ATTORNEY WORK PRODUCT

Here is where our analysis stands Sunday night:

Claimants Against Enron:

EWEB		$19,982,000  [Note: Only for deliveries after 6/20/01.] [12
month spot market]
California Parties	      200,000  [CDWR Only][2 year refund period]
Tacoma		  $2,500,000  [all periods][24x24 plus index deals]
Seattle City Light  79,494,349  [all periods][18 months spot market]
	[Note:  Seattle City Light uses only five "fair prices" $19.86,
23.18, 27.16, 66.47, 81.62]
Modesto Irrigation District  $299,615.50


Evaluating these claimants using Enron DATA and CAISO 8/9/01 heat rates:
				Physical Only	 All   [Note: this is for
12/25-6/20]
EWEB	24x24  	  -199,344		-575,150
		24-7 day	    -34,946		  -54,303
		7-31 days	$3,851,579	      -1,890,748
		31-366 days   679,468		  679,468

Tacoma	24x24	-1,131,790	      -9,189,085
		24-7 days      -49,096	      -4,317,095
		7-31 days	   126,844		  126,844
		31-366days 3,729,662	      14,715,188

Seattle	24x24	1,172,831	          875,204
		24- 7days     689,353		  320,750
		7-31 days 23,249,605	      25,081,446
		31-366days   961,513		1,006,280

Modesto   	24x24	   190,051		  190,051
		24-7 days	       -			-
		7-31 days  -8,084,920	      -8,240,938
		31-366days-1,154,850	      -3,029,559

Observations:  24x24 is still our best picture for just these claimants.
		     Netting is still critical
		     Excluding bookouts lowers over all netting risk (lower
sales overall)
			but hurts with Tacoma numbers.  (We book out a lot
of
			Tacoma purchases over the California reference
price.)
		     We will owe Seattle more if exclude bookouts. (We book
out
                        more Seattle sales than purchases.)

This is still fairly rough.  I would not quote or distribute these numbers.
Thanks
Gary



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